誰說科學就是clear cut, crystal clear？
有位網友在fb的留言解釋得非常好，在其同意下，隱去其名轉載
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舉例, 呢類科學(環境科學), 一定有好大既 不確定性
大家鍾意睇既, 至少 係 "四十年後 全球氣溫最多會上升 xx 度"
甚至係 "香港再無冬天" "救救北極熊" "末世浩劫" "全球玩撚完"
但事實上, even 係 IPCC (即係最權威既機構)既研究
比出黎既, 係一個 distribution, 一條 curve, 每個情況既機會率
同樣地, 唔少人解釋事物, 都係 線性既
正如我地中學讀書都會係, 因為咁, 所以咁, 然後咁, 點解要咁? 因為咁
可惜係, 科學現象, 並唔係咁簡單, 好多時係 混沌既 (Chaos)
又或者, 政客鍾意 sell 零容忍, 一次都太多, 100% certainity
但正如 "Fair Game" 入面講 (套戲講 政治, 唔係科學, 但都適用, 好睇的)
"There is no certainty in intelligence"
在科學上面, 當然有某d情況有, 但更多情況下係冇
飛機會唔會失事? 會! 會唔會死人? 會!
但我地都係接受左坐飛機
同樣地, 呢樣野可以推到去 核能 身上
(當然好多人唔同意, 你都可以唔同意)
當然以我地一般人既水平, 冇法理解咁多野
但至少, 在科普既層面上, 理解下 以上既野, 都好好
之後仲要帶出, 就係如果涉及 現世社會, 就更煩
因為, 要講 經濟效益
作者篇文都有舉例
都係果句, 政客, 傳媒, 鍾意講 "人命係無價" "xx係無價"
但現世社會, 冇法, 乜都要有個價
你可以諗下, 馬車, 甚至後來汔車, 飛機
全部都係會死人的 (段估行路上北京冇咁易死, 比人老笠另計)
問題係, 我地可以慳到幾多時間/金錢, 帶黎幾多利益 (於個人/社會計)
但如果你用 "人命係無價" "一次都太多", 咁就咩都唔撚使計
因為 無限 乘 一個好細既機會, 都係 "無價" 既
伸延閱讀：the economist: the truth about the environment
星期四, 3月 31, 2011
星期三, 3月 30, 2011
李察皇與撒拉丁
假如不知他們是誰，可以參考這裡，和這裡。簡而言之，他們是十字軍東征年代的兩大宿敵，據聞亦互相欣賞。
但這次並不是想講歷史。
早前轉天氣，抱恙在家無事可幹，手痕翻看鬼佬殘片King Richard & Crusaders，這是1954年的老爺電影，不要問我為何看，總之人病了，有很多事情都不能解釋。
不看尤自可，劇中的撒拉丁不單智勇雙全，而且風流倜儻。獅心皇李察陣中有變，遇刺重傷，撒拉丁聞訊，喬裝成宮延御醫隻身前往。途中他先遇上劍比腦袋快的主角Sir Kenneth，好不容易擊倒他找到空檔解釋，獅心皇的叛黨又殺到，大戰一輪，幾經波折才到達十字軍大本營。
撒拉丁自稱是皇上(其實就是他自己)派來替李察看病的醫者，一輪刀圭藥石後，原來又能歌善賦，逗得李察皇表妹芳心大亂。
三數日後，李察皇果然逃過鬼門一劫，見到這位「御醫」，自是龍顏大悅，豪言能力之內，甚麼獎賞都能給。撒拉丁乃善奕之人，笑說這個賞賜暫且按下不表罷。
叛黨們當然趁機有所動作，將主角陷於不義，離間各諸候，殺死撒拉丁派來的和談使團，甚至連獅心皇的表妹也拐走了，全靠撒拉丁謀略過人，調度兵馬逐一擺平，臨尾他更單人匹馬反喬裝成叛黨，潛入其中救得美人歸。反而主角在結尾跟殘黨頭領在橋頭打的爛仔交，就顯得蒼白無力了。殘黨頭目嗚呼倒地，按照荷里活當年傳統，女主角當然飛奔上前擁抱親吻，這時撒拉丁自知求偶無望，講了一句很型的收場白：「智者知道甚麼時候應收起自己的智慧，但智者更應知道何時放開不屬於他的東西。」拍馬絕塵而去。
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雖然封面寫King Richard，但主角是撒拉丁，而且他的戲份蓋過所有其他角色。King Richard在電影中象徵無力再掌握大局的傳統男權，主角Sir Kenneth經常有勇無謀，戲份被蓋得太多，任何一位現代導演和經理人，相信都很難接受這種被嚴重out staged的角色。至於撒拉丁這類性格的人物，也很少出現於近年的荷里活銀幕，回想起來，似乎近年真的很少富有冒險精神，陽光而又世故的主角，是太難寫了嗎？
撒拉丁的故事，令我想起奇幻小說大師David Gemmel的處女作Legend：主角們被一對五十數量的凶奴人兵圍城下，苦撐數天後，他們最強的英雄，也就是書中的被二男主角：老將Druss被敵人擊斃了，Druss是兩個陣營都共同景仰的英雄，他倒下時，凶奴皇親身領走遺體，並下令全軍休戰一天，以悼英靈。
是夜，主角Rek集結僅餘的將領，決定到敵陣為Druss守夜。眾人均說這是自殺，主角笑說你們不去我自己去。
主角一行人大剌剌現身在篝火會，凶奴上下大是震驚，凶奴皇說「你知否我一聲令下，箭雨可以把你們覆蓋再覆蓋？」
「我知你不會這樣做，今晚的主角是Druss。」
「有種！來！我們今晚喝喝酒，吃點好的，我們可以談談你的過去。」
「為甚麼只談過去？」
「因為你們已沒有將來。」
**********
近年電腦CG已經more real than real，甚麼樣的劍技、盔甲和拳腳身手都可以虛構出來，但是上述那種響噹噹的男子氣概，偏偏ren不到，也沒有多少演員有這種氣魄carry到這些對白，甚是可惜。
星期五, 3月 25, 2011
短篇s
時間值
雖然在簡介上說自己喜歡吵架，近年可能要改一改了。
漸感到時間飛逝，其實每天依然是24小時，但背負的責任不同了，有些事，自覺不能再含混，於是每單位的時間價值上升，好些低回報的行為就得剔走。
不幸地，網上跟別人吵屬於這個類別。
而且開始覺得，每天不能承受太多負面情緒。假如要維持最佳的productivity，前提一定要保持心境適量愉快，就算高興不起來，至少是一個相對平穩的狀態。現在開始明白，為何「大人」遇上一些較雞碎的爭議，基本上不論誰對誰錯，他們是完全不想理的，因為不能為一些低意義的東西影響到生活質素。
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政見的深淺度
常言「勿談國是」，原來因為政治跟宗教差不多，很大部份都不能預知結果，並且需要一定信念去維持。比方說，自由市場和政府干預哪個政策較好？應否派錢？派多少？大家都有一套理論，但極少能夠以量化科學的方式証明。就算有統計數字，用不同的數據model分析，結論可以南轅北轍。
記得以前想跟人爭拗全球一起吃素抑或雜食的優劣，對方太頑固(當然我也一樣)，上網求教谷歌大神，碰上一篇真正的科學研究報告，心想今次你仲唔仆街。打開一看，全是硬數據，所謂結論的東西，只是說明「是次實驗証明，當蛋白質到達A水平時，B化學物會產生C反應。完。」滿以為可將素食塔利班置誅死地，全不是那回事。
科學實驗只能找出一些數據，如何去理解這些數據，有時未必完全科學，頂多是well educated assumptions。比方說，之前傳媒炒作甚熱的大型粒子撞擊儀，有關撞擊儀能造成微型黑洞之說，有科學家打了個比喻去回應「這只等於不排除木星光環上有個茶杯飄浮著的可能性」。
近年逛論壇，經常見到有人爭論量化寬鬆那樣那樣，樓市這樣這樣，辯証的水平可能也是木星茶杯的級數。既然都是吹水，一來不用太上心，二則不必把說話講得太死，因為明天隨時「真相」又會改變，一段新的youtube、或者是某專家發表的新報告等等。
正如Steven Covey話齋，地形不斷在變，地圖很快會outdate，但指南針卻不會。3月6的示威，到底警方和示威者哪一方「比較錯」？大概是無頭公案，但執法部隊要有integrity，不能濫權，這是誰也不能反駁的大原則(當然示威者都有一些底線要守)。詭辯者可以將議題剪得支離破碎，但是要衡量基本對錯，最簡單的辦法就是將眼見的資料跟原則對比，不符原則的就是錯了。
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天份
有段時間跟某辦學團體做事，他們其中一個宗旨是believe in the human potential.
這點我極之同意，人的天份就是這麼兒嬉：在某個關鍵時刻，有個對你很重要的人說「你行的」，或者有些跡象証明你做得到，然後就會相信自己有天份，繼而樂於投放更多時間心神，形成良性自証循環。
小時候有嚴重的哮喘病，後來雖然醫好了但從不覺得體能上有起色，陸運會跑800公尺已虛脫，要呆坐半小時回氣。直至多年後，朋友報了名參加馬拉松，本著陪跑的心態陪他練，慢慢發現原來自己都可以跑10k，時間由最初每公哩十數分鐘到現在6-7分鐘左右，再持續練習的話，應該可以繼續改善到平均5分鐘的水平。
世界級10km賽事冠軍水平是3分鐘左右，於我而言大概是out of the question，可是大多數體能正常，勤於練習的普通人，要跑5 min/km並不是難事。
我想很多人面對未做過或自覺沒天份的事，就像哮喘病患望著10公哩賽道一樣，感到遙不可及。投放足夠努力的話，雖然未必會達至3-5分鐘的級別，但是由「不能跑」變到7,8分鐘，已是極大進步。
雖然在簡介上說自己喜歡吵架，近年可能要改一改了。
漸感到時間飛逝，其實每天依然是24小時，但背負的責任不同了，有些事，自覺不能再含混，於是每單位的時間價值上升，好些低回報的行為就得剔走。
不幸地，網上跟別人吵屬於這個類別。
而且開始覺得，每天不能承受太多負面情緒。假如要維持最佳的productivity，前提一定要保持心境適量愉快，就算高興不起來，至少是一個相對平穩的狀態。現在開始明白，為何「大人」遇上一些較雞碎的爭議，基本上不論誰對誰錯，他們是完全不想理的，因為不能為一些低意義的東西影響到生活質素。
***********************
政見的深淺度
常言「勿談國是」，原來因為政治跟宗教差不多，很大部份都不能預知結果，並且需要一定信念去維持。比方說，自由市場和政府干預哪個政策較好？應否派錢？派多少？大家都有一套理論，但極少能夠以量化科學的方式証明。就算有統計數字，用不同的數據model分析，結論可以南轅北轍。
記得以前想跟人爭拗全球一起吃素抑或雜食的優劣，對方太頑固(當然我也一樣)，上網求教谷歌大神，碰上一篇真正的科學研究報告，心想今次你仲唔仆街。打開一看，全是硬數據，所謂結論的東西，只是說明「是次實驗証明，當蛋白質到達A水平時，B化學物會產生C反應。完。」滿以為可將素食塔利班置誅死地，全不是那回事。
科學實驗只能找出一些數據，如何去理解這些數據，有時未必完全科學，頂多是well educated assumptions。比方說，之前傳媒炒作甚熱的大型粒子撞擊儀，有關撞擊儀能造成微型黑洞之說，有科學家打了個比喻去回應「這只等於不排除木星光環上有個茶杯飄浮著的可能性」。
近年逛論壇，經常見到有人爭論量化寬鬆那樣那樣，樓市這樣這樣，辯証的水平可能也是木星茶杯的級數。既然都是吹水，一來不用太上心，二則不必把說話講得太死，因為明天隨時「真相」又會改變，一段新的youtube、或者是某專家發表的新報告等等。
正如Steven Covey話齋，地形不斷在變，地圖很快會outdate，但指南針卻不會。3月6的示威，到底警方和示威者哪一方「比較錯」？大概是無頭公案，但執法部隊要有integrity，不能濫權，這是誰也不能反駁的大原則(當然示威者都有一些底線要守)。詭辯者可以將議題剪得支離破碎，但是要衡量基本對錯，最簡單的辦法就是將眼見的資料跟原則對比，不符原則的就是錯了。
***********************
天份
有段時間跟某辦學團體做事，他們其中一個宗旨是believe in the human potential.
這點我極之同意，人的天份就是這麼兒嬉：在某個關鍵時刻，有個對你很重要的人說「你行的」，或者有些跡象証明你做得到，然後就會相信自己有天份，繼而樂於投放更多時間心神，形成良性自証循環。
小時候有嚴重的哮喘病，後來雖然醫好了但從不覺得體能上有起色，陸運會跑800公尺已虛脫，要呆坐半小時回氣。直至多年後，朋友報了名參加馬拉松，本著陪跑的心態陪他練，慢慢發現原來自己都可以跑10k，時間由最初每公哩十數分鐘到現在6-7分鐘左右，再持續練習的話，應該可以繼續改善到平均5分鐘的水平。
世界級10km賽事冠軍水平是3分鐘左右，於我而言大概是out of the question，可是大多數體能正常，勤於練習的普通人，要跑5 min/km並不是難事。
我想很多人面對未做過或自覺沒天份的事，就像哮喘病患望著10公哩賽道一樣，感到遙不可及。投放足夠努力的話，雖然未必會達至3-5分鐘的級別，但是由「不能跑」變到7,8分鐘，已是極大進步。
星期二, 3月 15, 2011
(轉載)For those who are living in Japan and have few experience about earthquakes:
For those who are living in Japan and have few experience about earthquakes:
I suppose most of you are living in the Tokyo region. This place is safe for now. Yesterday's M9 earthquake was a serious disaster and affected a wide region of northeast Japan. I believe you could also feel the aftershocks yesterday all night. Most of those aftershocks were harmless. Even if they do, it's likely that they will affect the same region, not Tokyo.
Please, however, do not simply assume that the safety will last indefinitely. If you have not heard about the following before, I think it is now time to pay some attention. It is the government's policy that Tokyo is expecting at least one severe earthquake disaster in the near future. Technically, the accepted prediction is that there is a very high chance (~70%, depending on region) that the Tokyo region will suffer from a JMA intensity 6+ earthquake (which will cause building damage) somewhere in the next 30 years. I know it seems difficult to understand these numbers. For some people, 30 years look a long time and irrelevant to your current life. Unfortunately, under the current level of science, it is difficult to give a scientific prediction with better resolution (i.e. shorter period of time). Anyway, in simple terms, earthquake WILL come, sooner or later.
A minor point to add about earthquake prediction is that, actually Miyagi Prefecture (the center of disaster for yesterday's M9 event) is categorised as a highest risk region. It is not surprising that a disaster will hit, although it's still out of many experts' expectation that the magnitude is this large. I am sure that you must have also heard from the news that this is the largest earthquake we have ever had in the history of Japan (more precisely, in the instrumental history of Japan; no one knows that happened 10000 years before). Yes, we are witnessing the history.
Another thing I would like to remind (or advise, in case you did not know it before) you is that, for a M9 earthquake of this kind, it is not surprising that it will trigger some moderate earthquakes in the nearby region. Some aftershock you felt today and yesterday may not be technically aftershocks but triggered earthquakes. Differentiating them precisely is left as an exercise for scientists. What really related to your personal life is that, these triggered earthquakes could occur somewhat far away from the mainshock. Today's (12th March) early morning, there was a M6.2 earthquake in Niigata Prefecture inland and caused some damage. This level of earthquake magnitude is comparable to the previous Niigata earthquake in 2007 that damaged a nuclear power plant, and another previous one in 2004. That means, even if there was no M9 earthquake yesterday, the Niigata earthquake in this morning by itself is a major disaster already. It was fatal, and likely be fatal again if similar things happen again.
We all know that it is not an aftershock. Whether it is a coincidence or a triggered event is unknown for now and probably will remain unknown in the near future, but let us assume the worst. From previous experience, after an M9 class earthquake, there will likely be a continuous swarm of moderate earthquakes, either aftershocks or triggered earthquakes, in the next one month. Triggered earthquakes can even come somehow later (say, a year later) and in a relatively far place from the mainshock (say, Niigata from Miyagi, or even Kanto region).
If you have not ever imagained that an earthquake will hit you before, think about it now. Think what you will do after an earthquake has hit you place. How do you contact with your family members or close friends in case telecommunications are not functioning? Where is your nearest emergency gathering site? If you are living or working in a place close to water (say, with a beautiful sea-view), how is the tsunami risk? The tsunami risk for Tokyo city is not expected to be high, so there is no official predicted flooding depth for tsunami scenarios. For some regions in Japan, there are official predictions. All information is open to the public. You can search for "tsunami shinsuiyosoku" (in Japanese, in English it means tsunami flooding prediction) to check if there is any official tsunami prediction for your area.
Natural disasters may or may not be predicted, but certainly cannot be prevented. Earthquake will come, sooner or later. A prepared mind will keep you claim during emergency, may save your life, and very likely make your life easier in the post-shock time. Be prepared!
轉載小弟一位舊同學的fb，此君在日本從事地震研究多年
I suppose most of you are living in the Tokyo region. This place is safe for now. Yesterday's M9 earthquake was a serious disaster and affected a wide region of northeast Japan. I believe you could also feel the aftershocks yesterday all night. Most of those aftershocks were harmless. Even if they do, it's likely that they will affect the same region, not Tokyo.
Please, however, do not simply assume that the safety will last indefinitely. If you have not heard about the following before, I think it is now time to pay some attention. It is the government's policy that Tokyo is expecting at least one severe earthquake disaster in the near future. Technically, the accepted prediction is that there is a very high chance (~70%, depending on region) that the Tokyo region will suffer from a JMA intensity 6+ earthquake (which will cause building damage) somewhere in the next 30 years. I know it seems difficult to understand these numbers. For some people, 30 years look a long time and irrelevant to your current life. Unfortunately, under the current level of science, it is difficult to give a scientific prediction with better resolution (i.e. shorter period of time). Anyway, in simple terms, earthquake WILL come, sooner or later.
A minor point to add about earthquake prediction is that, actually Miyagi Prefecture (the center of disaster for yesterday's M9 event) is categorised as a highest risk region. It is not surprising that a disaster will hit, although it's still out of many experts' expectation that the magnitude is this large. I am sure that you must have also heard from the news that this is the largest earthquake we have ever had in the history of Japan (more precisely, in the instrumental history of Japan; no one knows that happened 10000 years before). Yes, we are witnessing the history.
Another thing I would like to remind (or advise, in case you did not know it before) you is that, for a M9 earthquake of this kind, it is not surprising that it will trigger some moderate earthquakes in the nearby region. Some aftershock you felt today and yesterday may not be technically aftershocks but triggered earthquakes. Differentiating them precisely is left as an exercise for scientists. What really related to your personal life is that, these triggered earthquakes could occur somewhat far away from the mainshock. Today's (12th March) early morning, there was a M6.2 earthquake in Niigata Prefecture inland and caused some damage. This level of earthquake magnitude is comparable to the previous Niigata earthquake in 2007 that damaged a nuclear power plant, and another previous one in 2004. That means, even if there was no M9 earthquake yesterday, the Niigata earthquake in this morning by itself is a major disaster already. It was fatal, and likely be fatal again if similar things happen again.
We all know that it is not an aftershock. Whether it is a coincidence or a triggered event is unknown for now and probably will remain unknown in the near future, but let us assume the worst. From previous experience, after an M9 class earthquake, there will likely be a continuous swarm of moderate earthquakes, either aftershocks or triggered earthquakes, in the next one month. Triggered earthquakes can even come somehow later (say, a year later) and in a relatively far place from the mainshock (say, Niigata from Miyagi, or even Kanto region).
If you have not ever imagained that an earthquake will hit you before, think about it now. Think what you will do after an earthquake has hit you place. How do you contact with your family members or close friends in case telecommunications are not functioning? Where is your nearest emergency gathering site? If you are living or working in a place close to water (say, with a beautiful sea-view), how is the tsunami risk? The tsunami risk for Tokyo city is not expected to be high, so there is no official predicted flooding depth for tsunami scenarios. For some regions in Japan, there are official predictions. All information is open to the public. You can search for "tsunami shinsuiyosoku" (in Japanese, in English it means tsunami flooding prediction) to check if there is any official tsunami prediction for your area.
Natural disasters may or may not be predicted, but certainly cannot be prevented. Earthquake will come, sooner or later. A prepared mind will keep you claim during emergency, may save your life, and very likely make your life easier in the post-shock time. Be prepared!
轉載小弟一位舊同學的fb，此君在日本從事地震研究多年
星期日, 3月 13, 2011
為何學日文二
「どうして日本語を習う」と質問があった場合は、困っています。
最初、女性が好きになった時、日本語が話せば、日本人の恋人ができると思いました。
留学生時代、日本の漫画やアニメやドラマや映画など見えるだめに、専門学校の短期クラスを進みました。しかし、アニメや漫画などたいてい中国語の訳本がありますが、そして、インターネット無料海賊版たくさんがある。そのため、日本語が全然できないでもいいです、すぐクラスをやめました。
２０才ごろ、日本語が上手になれば、エロスゲームの遊び方がわかるつもりです。ところが、年をとって、仕事が忙しくなって、そんなことは時間の無駄だ。今、日本語を勉強の理由はもう一度変えだ、中国語と英語世界あとの文化をおうと思います。例えば、「ショートショートの神様」と呼ばれのSF作家星新一、作品をずっと渇望する。星新一の作品は中国語の訳本が売りません、英語のが少しいあるのて、日本語だけ読めなければなりません。また、日本語が上手になれば、たくさんデザインの本が読めるになる、もーと仕事の技術を上げります。
**********************
現在課程都是拆散一句句地學，沒有機會完整地將文法串連。事實上大家也沒有能力這樣做，唯有自己膽粗粗地嘗試作文，文法肯定錯漏百出，過兩日給老師評評看。
最初、女性が好きになった時、日本語が話せば、日本人の恋人ができると思いました。
留学生時代、日本の漫画やアニメやドラマや映画など見えるだめに、専門学校の短期クラスを進みました。しかし、アニメや漫画などたいてい中国語の訳本がありますが、そして、インターネット無料海賊版たくさんがある。そのため、日本語が全然できないでもいいです、すぐクラスをやめました。
２０才ごろ、日本語が上手になれば、エロスゲームの遊び方がわかるつもりです。ところが、年をとって、仕事が忙しくなって、そんなことは時間の無駄だ。今、日本語を勉強の理由はもう一度変えだ、中国語と英語世界あとの文化をおうと思います。例えば、「ショートショートの神様」と呼ばれのSF作家星新一、作品をずっと渇望する。星新一の作品は中国語の訳本が売りません、英語のが少しいあるのて、日本語だけ読めなければなりません。また、日本語が上手になれば、たくさんデザインの本が読めるになる、もーと仕事の技術を上げります。
**********************
現在課程都是拆散一句句地學，沒有機會完整地將文法串連。事實上大家也沒有能力這樣做，唯有自己膽粗粗地嘗試作文，文法肯定錯漏百出，過兩日給老師評評看。
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